This week
Each game shows the model's lean, Jev's read and the situations with a 25/10/5-year signal that apply. "Agree" = every voice that has a lean points the same way. Click a game for every situation that fits each team.
Situations
Bars: cover rate against the spread from 0–100%, centered on 50%; the amber tick is breakeven at -110 (52.4%). signal = 2+ standard errors over 25 seasons and the same direction over 10 and 5. Click a row for the spot-by-spot breakdown.
Model
Logistic regression on situations for both teams plus form, rest, the line, Elo and EPA edges. Graded walk-forward and leak-free: to grade a season, the model is trained only on the seasons before it and picks its situations only from those seasons (a spot with 50+ games, 2+ standard errors off 50%, same lean in the last 8 seasons). Every situation ever invented, kept or dropped by Jev, is in the pool. Edge = how far the model's probability is from 50%.
This week's picks
What moves the model most
Situations the model chose (from all games)
Board
Brief
Pick a version, or compile a new one.
My bets
| Date | Game | Pick | Mkt | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
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